Where Hispanic Votes Will Matter in 2012

With the recent release of the national Census data pundits have been quick to point out the obvious: the Hispanic population is growing!

As if data points from the annual Current Population Survey, and now American Community Survey did not already tell us this on a yearly basis, the official 2010 decennial census now confirms that more than 50.5 million Hispanics are part of America and politicians should take note.

However, the lingering question on journalists' minds is whether or not this population growth will transfer into immediate political power?

With 33 U.S. Senate contests and a Presidential election across 50 states in 2012, the Hispanic voter is positioned to have a bigger impact than ever on the political landscape of America. However, even as the citizen eligible population is increasing rapidly, Hispanics continue to face a registration gap vis-a-vis Whites and African Americans.

Despite massive voter registration drives in 2008 and 2010, only about 60% of Hispanic citizen adults are registered to vote, compared to 70% of Blacks, and 74% of Whites. Thus, while the Hispanic population is growing dramatically (43% growth since 2000, compared to 1% growth in the White population), it's influence in 2012 could be even greater than expected if voter registration drives take shape.

Using data from the 1996 - 2008 Current Population Survey, Voting and Registration supplement, and 2010 Census data where available, we have projected the Hispanic eligible voter population, by state for November 2012.

Given the trends in growth rates over the previous decade, and new data from 2010, we project linear estimates for each state in 2012. By the 2012 election, Hispanics will account for over 10% of the citizen adult population - potential voters - in 11 states.

In another 13 states, Hispanic account for 5-10% of the citizen adult population. All told, that's 24 states where Hispanics have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes, given a competitive statewide election. In the table below, we outline the potential states where Hispanics votes might matter in elections for U.S. Senate and President in 2012.

For each state, we list the percentage of the total citizen adult eligible population that is Hispanic, as well as an estimate of how many eligible Hispanics are not yet registered to vote. States are sorted by where Hispanics are likely to have the most influence in 2012.

In 2012, Hispanic voters have the best chance to influence outcomes in 10 states for either Senate, President, or both. Four of the top five states will be "Hispanic influence states" on everyone's map: New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, Colorado all have large and growing Hispanic electorates in otherwise politically competitive states.

In addition to close presidential contests, New Mexico, Florida and Nevada will likely see very competitive Senate elections. Another state we include, Arizona, has a large Hispanic population, and depending on who the nominees are for U.S. Senate, could have a fairly competitive election with Hispanic voters proving decisive. In 2010, Hispanics registered voters in Arizona demonstrated the highest turnout rate of Hispanics in any state.

The next batch of states Hispanics may influence are ones that historically are not obvious Hispanic states, but significant population growth over the last decade has left a substantial Hispanic eligible voter population.

In Connecticut, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Massachusetts, Hispanics account for over 5% of potential voters, and each state is expected have a competitive U.S. Senate or Presidential contest in 2012. For example, in Georgia, the Hispanic population grew by 96% since 2000 while the White population grew by 6%; a state McCain won by just 5% (52-47) in 2008. In Wisconsin Hispanics grew by 74% compared to 1% growth for Whites, and could be one of the most fiercely contested states in 2012.

Beyond these 10 states, there are others where Hispanics will matter if elections are close, as expected in Nebraska, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio. While the Hispanic population is a smaller percentage, the number of Hispanic citizen adults is growing rapidly, and with voter registration drives targeting potential Hispanic voters, we could very well be talking about the next "Hispanic upset" ala Reid vs. Angle in one of these five states. In Missouri the Hispanic population grew by 79% - 20 times faster than the White population (which grew by 4%), in a state that McCain won by just 4,000 total votes in 2008. One of the biggest keys to Hispanic influence in 2012 will not just be the population growth which has already occurred, but rather, voter registration drives that still need to occur.

Over 8 million more to be registered

Overall, we estimate 21.5 million Hispanic citizen adults will be eligible to vote in November 2012, up from 19.5 million in 2008. If registration rates remain constant, that will leave over 8 million Hispanic eligible voters who are not registered in 2012. With significant voter registration drives the Hispanic vote can go from influential to essential. In addition to the current Hispanic share of the citizen adult population in each state in the table above, we've also listed the estimated number of Hispanics eligible to vote who are not registered, given growth rates. For example, while Hispanics are growing in influence in Arizona, there are over 400,000 Hispanics eligible to vote who are not yet registered. In Florida it's even more - over 600,000 Hispanics could be added to the voter rolls. Newly naturalized citizens and young Hispanics turning 18 are adding literally a half-million of new potential voters each year.

Over the past decade, and well before, Hispanic civic and political organizations have led the charge in registering voters, as political parties rarely ventured into el barrio for campaign outreach. Groups such as NALEO, NCLR, Southwest Voter have invested millions of dollars and millions of hours into Hispanic voter registration and civic education drives. Today, many new and influential groups have emerged and done considerable work in Hispanic voter registration and mobilization including Mi Familia Vota, Democracia USA, The Hispanic Institute, and Voto Hispanic among many other groups. However, these non-partisan groups operate mostly on soft money contributions and an extensive volunteer network.

A significant investment in Hispanic voter registration is badly overdue by both major political parties. In Texas, for example, there are an estimated 2.1 million Hispanic eligible voters who are not yet registered, who could be crucial to either party's desire to win and hold statewide office in Texas in coming years. In California there are another 2 million eligible Hispanics to be registered. There are 300,000 unregistered Hispanics who could be voters in Illinois where a U.S. Senate election was decided by less than 60,000 votes in 2010.

As pundits look towards 2012, Hispanic voters are positioned to cast crucial votes in many states. Beyond looking at just the likely 4/4 voters, or perhaps the pool of registered voters, campaigns and candidates would be wise to look at the growing pool of Hispanic eligible voters and invest now in bringing more Hispanics into the political system - an investment that will pay off for decades to come.